Beuleah Analysis

Currency analysis from a backyard Economist

December 14, 2008 • 10:02 pm 1

Exponential equity growth model

fund

In this portfolio management model what I’d done is:

I averaged (hypothesis) 250 pips per trade with 2% risk per trade. An initial investment of $3000 US turned out to be $56,037.56 an astonishing 1867.92% return on capital. And I’ll be running this test on a live account from January 15th 2009 to March 15th 2010 total 60 weeks of trading timefame on 4 pairs

GBP/JPY – My all time favorite.
GBP/AUD – Very volatile yet accurate in Fibonacci ratios.
GBP/CHF – Follow GBP/JPY trend mostly.
EUR/AUD – Very unpredictable still considering it if other three pairs don’t have any bonafide ABCD model of setup (Fibonacci)

The trading method will be used, ABCD setup of Fibonacci ratios very proven and very backyard method. So far since June 2008 I had ran a demo account to check the validity of the method. So far on a linear equity growth model it has produced me 76% ROI.

Gross Profit:

4286.39

Gross Loss:

461.71

Total Net Profit:

3 824.68

Profit Factor:

9.28

Expected Payoff:

47.22

Absolute Drawdown:

0.00

Maximal Drawdown:

151.00 (2.18%)

Relative Drawdown:

2.18% (151.00)

Total Trades:

81

Short Positions (won %):

43 (79.07%)

Long Positions (won %):

38 (78.95%)

Profit Trades (% of total):

64 (79.01%)

Loss trades (% of total):

17 (20.99%)

Largest

profit trade:

436.92

loss trade:

-151.00

Average

profit trade:

66.97

loss trade:

-27.16

Maximum

consecutive wins ($):

15 (939.36)

consecutive losses ($):

3 (-15.98)

Maximal

consecutive profit (count):

939.36 (15)

consecutive loss (count):

-151.00 (1)

Average

consecutive wins:

5

consecutive losses:

1

The beauty of the system is that its not a “Bracket Trading” sucker model with fixed stop loss or profit target. The model trades are basically following swing setups based on the major trend so entry does not really matter. And I’m not using any martingale position sizing but Kelly Criteria, its basic scale in and scale out technique that I developed in last one year.

Wish me luck!

Filed under: Random Thoughts

• 8:06 pm 0

USD/CHF – Weekly Chart

usdchf

I’ll be entering at 50% level this week if it bounce as the upward channel is there as support. The profit target level is at 127.2% expansion level. The trade might be open for longer than 2 weeks.

Filed under: USD/CHF

• 6:50 pm 0

Reading books this weekend

I’ve been reading my all time favorite trading books this weekend, from The Black Swan to Trading in the zone and reading my old articles as well. It sucks to stop following the market in between semester feels like I’m reborn every year.

Well Tokyo will open in four hours, I better take some rest. It will be a healthy week I can feel.

Filed under: Random Thoughts